The final major of the year is upon us. It feels like just yesterday that Spieth was hitting ten balls into the water at amen corner. The FedEx Cup is right around the corner and this tournament will tell us a lot about who are the contenders and who are the pretenders.
The Course:
Baltusrol is one of the best. Located in Springfield Township, New Jersey, the course was named after Baltus Roll, a farmer who worked the land of the five time U.S. Open venue until 1831 at which time he was murdered by two men near where the first hole is located today. The land has since been turned into the 89th best course in the world and one of the best major venues ever. The course has hosted nine men's major championships. The eighteen hole stretch has all the ingredients of a U.S. Open / PGA Championship course: the slippery greens, deep bunkers, thick rough and undeniable length. Each of these ingredients work together to test the greatest golfers in the world. The course is going to be playing 7400 yards as a par 70, that's quite long. The course has held sixteen national tournaments, which has allowed for some historical moments..
The History:
1) Back in 1926, Bobby Jones lost the Amateur Championship here. He was going for his third in a row bet ended up losing to George Von Elm. "I had beaten him at Merion and at Oakmont, and the Lord knows nobody is going to keep on beating a golfer like George Von Elm," wrote Jones in one his books. "I wanted to make it three championships in a row, but it wasn't in the book. It was George's turn." RIP Bobby Jones
2) In 1967, the most notable major moment at the lower course, involved arguably the best of all time, Jack Nicklaus. He went head to head with Arnold Palmer in the final round of the 1967 US Open. Jack hit a historic shot on the 18th, blazing a 1 iron a cool 237 yards, on his way to shooting the lowest Open four round total to that point, posting a 275 (-5).
I love the background music to the highlight. It somehow works out great.
3) And then in 2005, Phil Mickelson had to make a birdie on the par 5 18th in order to claim his first PGA Championship. Phil hit his second shot to just left of the green into the deep rough beside the green. As he would later describe it, "the rough was no longer than the rough in my backyard". The way he described it was exactly how easy he made it look. Shit was not easy at all. The lefty flopped to about three feet, giving a classic double fist pump to the sky. Sinking the birdie putt for his first PGA Championship
The Conditions:
Thunder Storms are expected throughout the weekend...
Should make things interesting. Playing times the first two days will be crucial because of the conditions the weather present for scoring opportunities.
The Odds:
The Favorites:
1) Dustin Johnson
Odds: 8-1
Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has Dustin Johnson atop their list for 2016 PGA Championship Odds. It's hard not to like Dustin Johnson here. The course, just like Oakmont, sets up perfectly for his style of play. He is able to make the long par 4s on the front side of the course seem reasonable with his huge drives and 4. He can then able to capitalize on the par 5s on the backside and maintain a score of a couple under par. If he turns on his putter like he did during the U.S. Open, I don't think anyone can beat him at a course that sets up so well to his game. If he wins and Day doesn't finished atleast tied second, then we will have another number one in the world.
2) Jason Day
Odds: 9-1
The number one player in the world is just edged out by Dustin Johnson for the player with greatest odds to take this year's title as well as the being the player with the most confidence going into this event. Jason Day has been on fire since last year's RBC Canadien Open, winning seven times on Tour, one of which was the PGA Championship. Something has been missing in his game through this year's first three majors. He'll need some short game magic this week in order to capture his second major title.
3) Rory McIlroy
Odds: 9-1
The former number one player in the world and four time major champion, Rory McIlroy, will try and continue his greatest ball striking and see if he can translate that into some wins. He has top 10s in both the Masters and the Open Championship but has not really been in contention for any of the majors thus far this year. He doesn't have a win on the Tour this season so he will be trying to use his PGA Championship winning experiences (Valhalla and The Ocean Course) to his advantage this week. I like his chances if he stays consistent and sinks some putts.
4) Jordan Spieth
Odds: 12-1
This will be a real test for the two time major champion. I am extremely intrigued to see what kind of performance Spieth puts on this weekend. In comparison to his 2015 season, his 2016 campaign has been somewhat of a disappointment. He should have won the Masters earlier in the year, after giving up a three shot lead to Danny Willet in the final round. That choke job has been hanging over him this year in the majors.
5) Henrik Stenson
Odds: 15-1
After winning his first major in the Open Championship not even two weeks ago, Henrik Stenson will try and make it back to back. He has the confidence to do it. I wouldn't be surprised to see him come out and take the field by storm. If he's pounding his three wood and continues to pour in putts like he did during his final round at Royal Troon, there is no doubt in my mind he can win this tournament. If Stenson is able to win this major, he will finally break the cusp into the Elite golfer territory. He already is a great in the game today.
My Picks:
1) Jordan Spieth
Odds: 12-1
Jordan is not getting much love right now. I think this will only fuel his fire this week. Last year he finished second to an unstoppable Jason Day at this event. I think Jordan get his game back this week and wins this tournament. I know he hasn't been playing his greatest golf of late, but you know its there. He needs his putter to lead the way this week. At the Open, he had the opportunities, he just couldn't capitalize on the because of his poor putting. He also needs a consistent performance from his long irons this weekend. If he is able to stick those on the long par 3s and par 4s, he'll be as dangerous as he was in 2015.
Spieth is a value pick at 12-1. Bookmakers are looking at Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy to make big moves this week. Although Jordan has not showed that edge he had in 2015, I think he has improved as a player. He is longer off the tee and he has more confidence in his mid- to long-iron play than he did last year. Both of those facets of his game will be in full effect this weekend at Baltusrol where all par 3s are 200 yards or more and six of the par 4s stretch beyond 450 yards.
He was playing a practice round with Phil on Monday, who was in his ear all round long. I am sure the 24 year vet had a few words for the 22 year year old Spieth. With those words of advice, I see Jordan putting his stamp on this tournament early and often, proving the naysayers wrong, capturing his third major title.
2) Branden Grace
Odds: 40-1
The 12th ranked player in the world seems to go under the radar even though he's been lights out the past couple years. He's performed particularly well in the majors the past two years, particularly the U.S. Open and PGA Championships. Posting three top 5 finishes in the last three US Open and PGA Championships. He’s got great odds at 40-1 for someone to wreak the benefits of his play. He has very few flaws in his game and has proven he is able to compete with the best at the majors. I believe the South African is a great bet and will be the fourth first time Major winner of the year.
3)Jim Furyk
Odds: 50-1
Mr. Reliable I call him. Maybe the most unconventional swing on tour, but also the most effective. He may be old and this may be a terrible pick, but I've just got a feeling he's going to make a run at this tournament. Majors aren't all about hype, they are about who can remain level headed and sink putts in the clutch. Jim makes a living off both of those attributes. That is why he has been so successful in the majors, especially the U.S. Open and PGA Championship
Lock for Top 10:
Sergio Garcia
Odds: 25-1
I put this question in this article because of Sergio Garcia. He is easy money to get another top ten finish this week. Sergio has been playing fantastic golf of late, especially at the majors. He has two top 5 finishes on majors this year (The Open and the U.S. Open) and three T-5 finishes in his last four starts. Garcia has endured so much heartache over the years, living in the shadow of Tiger Woods. The Spaniard is only 36, but he seems like he could be in his late forties because of how long he’s been on Tour. In terms of Baltusrol, he’ll use his great drives and solid long irons to reach these long par 4s. Garcia is eleventh and sixth in Strokes Gained off the tee and Strokes gained approach to the green, respectively. This year has been the year of the first time winner. Even though I have major dislike for Sergio’s demeanor, I do enjoy watching his iron game and wouldn’t be too upset seeing him pulling this one out. A definite lock for the top ten.
The Underdogs:
1) J.B. Holmes
Odds: 60-1
He may not be an underdog per say, but he definitely doesn’t get the attention favorites do. Like Branden Grace, he seems to fly under the radar and post solid performances at majors. In his last three majors, he’s T-4 and third in two of the events (Masters and The British Open). Baltusrol sets up great for his long tee shots and accurate wedges. His irons will need to be consistent this week (he’s 146th Strokes Gained approach to the green) if he wants to have a shot at pulling off a victory
2)Tony Finau
Odds: 100-1
After collecting his first PGA Tour win back in March, he put up a T18th finish at the Open last week. He has three Top 20s in his four major starts. He finished T-10 at last years PGA and I think he can improve on that mark this year. He has everything you imagine in a PGA Champion. He hits it long. Has a solid iron game. And knows his way around the green. The only thing holding this 26 year back is winning experience. This could be the week he showcases his potential for the future.