When I first heard the Astros had signed a new rookie from Cuba, I assumed it would be some 18 year old phenom who I wouldn't hear of again for the next 3-4 years. When I saw it was a 32-year old man, it came as a bit of a shock. It’s not every day you see a 32 year old making his MLB debut. The only players older on the Astros 25-man roster are Scott Feldman, Neshek and Tony Sipp.
But when I did some research, I quickly realized this was no average 32 year old. Yulieski Gourriel has spent the past 15 years absolutely dominating Cuban league baseball. Gourriel, who most recently played for the Havana Industriales of the Cuban National Series, has never hit below .291 in a season. Last year, Gourriel hit .500 with 15 homeruns and 3 strikeouts. That’s a homerun to strikeout ratio of 15:3-- posting those numbers in the highest professional league of the country that's produced the likes of Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig and Aroldis Chapman is pretty damn impressive.
Its obvious Gourriel can play, so how will he fit into the Astros system? Gourriel is a natural third baseman, and for now is reporting to AA Corpus Christi. But General Manager Jeff Lunhow has made clear he anticipates Gourriel will play a major role in the Astros playoff run this year. So should we expect Gourriel to take over as the every day third baseman in the near future?
Currently, the Astros everyday third baseman is Luis Valbuena. Despite a slow start, he has come on to hit .284 since the beginning of May with 12 home runs, including a memorable 3-run walk-off job against the A’s. It would be tough to take him out of the lineup if he continues that type of production, especially considering his bat-flips and post homerun mannerisms are among the team’s best.
But Gourriel and Valbuena are not the only contenders at third base. Alex Bregman, the Astros top prospect and number two overall pick in the 2015 draft, has hit .340 at AAA Fresno this season. He is pushing for a promotion and many want to see him in the big leagues as soon as possible.
So there are three candidates: Luis Valbuena, Yulieski Gourriel and Alex Bregman. Who will take over at third base? And what happens to the other two? The way I see it, the next three to four weeks will serve as a try-out. The Astros need to see if Gourriel is really prepared for major league caliber pitching, as the jump from the Cuban National Series to the MLB is no small one. They also need time to further evaluate Bregman at AAA, as he has played only 12 games there.
If Gourriel and Bregman struggle, we're unlikely to see either of them until rosters expand in September. In that case, Valbuena would remain as the primary third basemen. But if Gourriel proves he is ready for big league pitching, and Bregman continues to hit the way he has at AAA, both are likely to be called up as soon as early August.
Ultimately, I think either Gourriel or Bregman takes over third base. If both players tear it up in the coming weeks, I think Bregman becomes the everyday third basemen with Gourriel getting time at DH and potentially as an outfielder (he has experience playing center field).
Regardless of his production, Valbuena will remain on the major league roster. If he struggles, he will likely be reduced to splitting time at DH with Evan Gattis, AJ Reed, and potentially Gourriel. If he continues to produce, he likely becomes the permanent DH against right handed pitchers.
A lot of moving pieces here, but ultimately it is never a bad thing to have options. The Astros will evaluate the three candidates over the next 3-4 weeks and make a decision from there. Having top level prospects available to step in and contribute during a playoff run is always a plus. But there is no need to rush things. Lately, the Astros have been getting along just fine.